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Papers & Reports

From Profits to Paperwork: Multinationals and the Cost of Transfer Pricing Regulation

  • By Johannes Scheuerer and Julie Brun Bjørkheim

This article quantifies the compliance costs of transfer pricing regulation by examining how multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Norway responded to enhanced documentation requirements. Using linked administrative tax, trade, and employment data, the study finds that the reform significantly increased MNEs’ reported profits, tax payments, and expenditures on tax advisory services. Specifically, external consultant costs rose by 25%, while in-house legal and accounting expenses surged by 50%. Smaller MNEs faced a relatively higher compliance burden, suggesting that transfer pricing regulation, while effective in boosting tax transparency and revenue, imposes substantial costs—particularly for less-resourced firms. These findings underscore the need for carefully calibrated anti-avoidance measures that balance enforcement with administrative feasibility.

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Specific Taxation Points in the Digital Economy: First the Issues, then the Solutions

  • By Lyla Latif

This article explores the structural inadequacies of existing international tax rules in addressing digital value extraction in the Global South. Framed through decolonial theory, it identifies thirteen critical taxation points in the digital economy“ from AI training and algorithmic systems to data monetization and digital labor platforms—where developing countries lose revenue to multinational tech firms operating without physical presence. The article critiques the persistent mismatch between conventional tax frameworks and intangible, data-driven value creation, arguing for a paradigm shift that centers digital sovereignty and fiscal justice. To address this, it proposes targeted instruments such as digital services taxes, algorithmic decision levies, and sovereignty-based fiscal tools. This article makes an innovative contribution by articulating digital taxation as both a legal and political project aimed at redressing global inequities in the digital economy.

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Are Businesses Absorbing the Tariffs or Passing Them on to Their Customers?

  • By Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Sebastian Heise, Benjamin Hyman, and Nick Montalbano

This article analyzes how businesses in the New York–Northern New Jersey region responded to elevated U.S. import tariffs, which have raised the costs of imported inputs to historic levels. Drawing on a regional business survey conducted in May, the study finds that most firms have passed on at least part of the increased costs to customers. Notably, about one-third of manufacturers and 45% of service sector firms fully transferred tariff-related cost increases by raising prices. These pricing decisions reflect firms’ strategic considerations, including competitive dynamics, customer tolerance for price changes, and the pressure to protect profit margins amid persistent cost shocks.

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The Propagation of Tariff Shocks via Production Networks

  • By Anastasiia Antonova, Luis Huxel, Mykhailo Matvieiev, and Gernot J. Müller

This article analyzes the macroeconomic impact of import tariffs through the lens of input-output linkages in a small open-economy New Keynesian framework. By modeling how tariffs imposed at different production stages transmit through supply chains, it shows that upstream tariffs depress downstream output, while downstream tariffs stimulate upstream sectors. The overall macroeconomic effect—whether contractionary or expansionary—depends on the economy's production network. Regardless of direction, tariffs consistently raise inflation, with the persistence of that inflation tied to network structure. Empirical support from U.S. tariff data validates the model’s predictions. Simulations of the “Liberation Day” tariff package suggest it would produce acute stagflation.

 

 

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What Went Wrong in the Apple State Aid Case: Part 1 - The Case

  • By Ruth Mason and Stephen Daly

This article provides a comprehensive reconstruction of the Apple state aid case, the European Commission’s most prominent enforcement effort against corporate tax avoidance through state aid rules. By examining official documents and decisions, the article traces how the Commission concluded that Ireland granted illegal aid to Apple, focusing on its contested use of the “allocation-by-exclusion” method and its invocation of transfer pricing norms that were not contemporaneous with the disputed tax rulings. While primarily descriptive, the article reveals how the Commission’s retroactive reasoning and ambiguous invocation of the arm’s-length standard raised both procedural and substantive concerns. It serves as a factual and legal foundation for critical analysis in a subsequent companion piece. 

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The Forgotten Attribution Power

  • By Alex Zhang

This article offers a comprehensive analysis of Congress’s constitutional power to attribute income for federal tax purposes, arguing that the Supreme Court’s decision in Moore v. United States aligns with a long-standing doctrinal tradition. Drawing on early 20th-century litigation over the taxation of trusts, corporations, and marital property, the article shows that the Court historically upheld broad congressional authority to tax one party based on another’s income, constrained only by due process. By tracing this attribution power through overlooked legal sources, the article supports the Moore majority’s reasoning and extends it to endorse modern tax reform proposals that allocate corporate income to shareholders.

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Income Source in a Digital Age

  • By Lawrence Lokken

This treatise chapter analyzes the 2025 Treasury regulations addressing the longstanding difficulties in applying U.S. source-of-income rules to intellectual property transactions. As digital content becomes the dominant form of IP, categorizing income as interest, dividends, rents, royalties, or gains has grown increasingly complex and economically significant. The chapter explains how the new regulations aim to clarify the sourcing of income from digital IP transactions, particularly by distinguishing between sales, licenses, and services and by refining the application of §§ 861–865. It situates the 2025 rules within the broader doctrinal framework and highlights their practical implications for cross-border taxation of digital IP.

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Preferential Liberalization and MFN Tariffs: New Evidence from a Global Sample of Free Trade Agreements

  • By Andrey Stoyanov and Zifan Bi

This article presents a novel empirical strategy to test how Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) influence external tariffs toward non-member countries. Analyzing data from all FTAs signed between 1988 and 2017, it finds that FTAs generally encourage modest reductions in Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs, contradicting the common view that FTAs lead to more protectionist external policies. The results reveal a small but consistent complementarity effect between preferential and MFN tariff cuts, especially when major trading partners are involved. The paper also provides empirical support for theoretical mechanisms like rent destruction and shows how its methodology enables broader testing of trade policy models.

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The Global Minimum Tax and Intra Western Tax Competition

  • By Rifat Azam

This article offers a critical reassessment of the Global Minimum Tax, framing it not as a milestone of international unity but as a strategic instrument of intra-Western tax competition, particularly in light of President Trump’s recent executive order repudiating the U.S.’s prior support for the OECD’s global tax deal. It highlights how the Global Minimum Tax—once celebrated as a multilateral breakthrough—exposes underlying geopolitical tensions, with Western powers divided in their fiscal strategies and economic priorities. The analysis focuses on the European Union’s push for strategic autonomy and the United States’ internal gridlock and policy reversals, suggesting that the GMT reflects a fragmented and power-driven international order rather than a cohesive multilateral framework.

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Trump Tariffs and Stock Prices

  • By Hakan Yilmazkuday

This article examines the impact of Trump-era tariffs and associated trade policy uncertainty on major U.S. stock indices using a structural vector autoregression model that accounts for global macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal that tariff shocks initially boost the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices in the short run, but exert negative effects in the long run. Trade policy uncertainty, by contrast, has limited short-run impact but leads to a decline in stock prices over time. The combined influence of tariff and uncertainty shocks accounts for up to 35% of S&P 500 volatility, 20% for Nasdaq, and 54% for the Dow, underscoring the significant role of trade policy in driving market fluctuations. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to mitigate volatility and manage long-term investment risk in response to trade-related shocks.

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